Originally posted to ydnar.vox.com in July 2006.
Someone once told me that if you bother repeating something to 3 or more people, you might as well blog about it. Well, OK.
The coming format war between industry heavyweights (electronics or movie) over whose next-generation DVD will own the living room is already over. It will be a very expensive, but ultimately pointless pissing match honored for its place in history as the last gasp of physical media.
Why? Dead prez and Tubes.
The medium for delivery of HD movies is already here--the Internet. The same millions of people who'd otherwise spend the $600 on an HD-DVD player can already download the equivalent amount of data in less time than a trip to Blockbuster.
Some brilliant person at Sony's movie division is going to figure out that instead of wasting the time & money chasing half a bifurcated market they can sell HD movies Right Now sans physical duplication, packaging and distribution costs. Therein lies the trick.